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Changes in Investment Strategy for Bitcoin and Gold Based on Election Results 본문
Changes in Investment Strategy for Bitcoin and Gold Based on Election Results
everyday-coin 2024. 11. 1. 09:11
As the U.S. presidential election approaches, attention is focused on the announcement of the results. Current polls show the Democratic nominee
Kamala Harris and Republican nominee Donald Trump are very close, but prediction markets such as Polymarkets show Trump having relatively higher approval ratings. It is necessary to consider these several indicators comprehensively.
Possible delay in announcing presidential election results
Increased early voting: This year's early voting turnout is at an all-time high, with 59 million people having voted in advance through Jan. 30. Early voting is divided into in-person and mail-in voting, and some states don't begin counting mail-in ballots until Election Day, which can delay the release of results.
Competitive State Situation: In key contested states such as Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan, the race continues to be super close. Pennsylvania, in particular, has 19 electoral votes, making it one of the biggest battlegrounds. The announcement of results in these contested states makes it even more difficult to predict the upper line.
Fear of Appeal: If the counting of votes is delayed in a close race, there may be a situation where the result is dissatisfied. Trump has a history of conceding the 2020 election, and we fear a similar situation this time around. Traditionally, when a candidate wins a majority of the electoral college, the winner is declared in a concession speech, but this time around, the process is likely to be complicated.
Investment Market Reaction
Bitcoin and Gold: JPMorgan analysts believe that retail investors will be buying Bitcoin (BTC) and gold ETFs if Trump is elected. Trump's victory could stimulate retail investors' risk appetite.
Altcoin Outlook: Bitwise CIO Matt Hogan predicts that Ethereum (ETH) and altcoins will see bigger gains if Trump wins. He explained that Bitcoin is already a recognized asset by regulators, so it has more regulatory clarity than altcoins.
conclusion
This election is expected to be very competitive, especially in the polymarket.ConclusionThis election is expected to be very competitive, especially in the polymarket, where Trump's approval rating is high. Due to the increase in early voting, there is likely to be a delay in the announcement of the results, which will lead to some volatility in the investor response. Therefore, it is necessary to adjust the investment strategy with a close eye on the results of the presidential election.
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